Are Empty Ports the Canary In Our Economic Coal Mine?

If you’ve been following the news lately, you might have seen the striking images of nearly empty ports in Long Beach, California, and other major import hubs across the country. These eerily quiet docks represent the tangible effects of President Trump’s sweeping tariff policies, implemented in April 2025. But what exactly do these empty ports mean for Americans, and how far will the ripple effects extend through our economy?

From Bustling Ports to Ghost Towns

The Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach complex, typically the busiest container port in the Western Hemisphere, is experiencing a dramatic decline in activity. According to recent data, cargo at the Port of Los Angeles is down approximately 35% compared to the same period last year.¹ This isn’t just a statistical anomaly—it’s having real impacts on American workers and businesses.

Charlie Camacho, a longshore worker whose family has worked at the ports for three generations, expressed his concerns to NPR: “Less volume of cargo containers means less work for us.”² His chances of finding work recently? By his own estimate, only about 25%.

This port slowdown extends far beyond California. Data from Vizion, a trade tracking company, shows declines of more than 17% at the Port of Los Angeles, 13% at the Port of Savannah, Georgia, and 12% at the Port of Norfolk, Virginia.³ The impact is nationwide.

The Tariff Timeline

To understand how we got here, let’s review the key developments in the current administration’s tariff policy:

• February 2025: President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, 25% tariffs on all products from Canada (except energy resources, subject to a 10% tariff), and 10% tariffs on all imports from China.⁴
• April 2, 2025: The administration declared a “national emergency” over trade deficits and imposed a universal 10% tariff on all countries, with higher “reciprocal” tariffs on nations with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits.⁵
• April 3, 2025: Trump imposed a new 25% tariff on all imported cars, including those from Mexico and Canada.⁶
• April 2025: Tariffs on China-made goods were hiked to an unprecedented 145%.⁷

The administration has justified these tariffs as necessary to reduce the trade deficit, reshore manufacturing, and strengthen America’s economic security. As stated in the White House fact sheet, the goal is to “increase our competitive edge, protect our sovereignty, and strengthen our national and economic security.”⁸

The Human Cost: Jobs at Risk

The impact on port workers is immediate and severe. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, explained the mathematical reality: “Every four containers means a job. So when we start dialing back, it means less job opportunity.”⁹

According to the Port’s website, 1 in 12 jobs in Los Angeles and Long Beach are supported by the ports.¹⁰ But the effects extend well beyond dock workers. The entire ecosystem of businesses connected to importing and exporting goods is affected—truck drivers, warehouse workers, freight forwarders, and countless suppliers.

Import-related layoffs have already surged since early April, with over 1,800 job cuts announced across the Southeast.¹¹ The ripple effect is just beginning to be felt across the supply chain.

What This Means for Consumers

The big question on many minds: will we soon see empty shelves in stores? According to port officials, the answer appears to be yes—and sooner than you might think.

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka warned that big importers say shoppers could start to see shortages in as little as four to six weeks once inventory that was stockpiled ahead of the tariffs runs out.¹² Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, put it bluntly in an NBC interview: “We are at a point of inflection. It’s kind of dire.”¹³

Beyond potential shortages, consumers can expect significant price increases. Economists at the Tax Foundation estimate that Trump’s tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by $163.1 billion in 2025, amounting to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per U.S. household.¹⁴

A February 2025 analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale found that if the United States were to match other countries’ tariff rates, as the administration is attempting to do, U.S. consumers would see price levels rise by 1.7 to 2.1 percent.¹⁵ Importantly, these price increases will hit lower-income people the hardest.

Businesses Caught in the Middle

For many American businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, the financial impact of these tariffs is overwhelming. Joseph Esteves, CEO of Maine Pointe, a global supply chain consultant, observed: “The major trend we see is shippers looking to not accept their freight. A lot of these companies are levered financially. They don’t have the working capital requirements and they don’t have the cash.”¹⁶

Consider the experience of Deer Stags, a footwear company. Before the tariff increases, they were paying a 6% duty on their shoes. With the multiple tariff hikes, that figure has skyrocketed to 110% on non-leather shoes and 120% on leather shoes. The company’s CEO estimates that the cost of freight orders subject to the new tariffs will rise from $60,000 to between $600,000 and $1 million.¹⁷

Companies are facing impossible choices: absorb crippling costs, pass them on to consumers who may balk at higher prices, or simply stop accepting shipments altogether.

Is the Port Slowdown Actually Good?

When asked about the port slowdown during an Oval Office interview, President Trump offered a surprising perspective: “That means we lose less money… when you say it slowed down, that’s a good thing, not a bad thing.”¹⁸

This view reflects the administration’s belief that reduced trade with countries like China represents a positive shift toward economic independence and domestic manufacturing. Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, articulated this position, stating that Trump was crafting “a new trade paradigm” and that higher tariffs would raise hundreds of billions in tax revenue to facilitate domestic tax cuts that would stimulate growth.¹⁹

The administration argues that short-term pain will lead to long-term gain as manufacturing returns to American shores. A White House economic analysis cited in their fact sheet claimed that “a global tariff of 10% would grow the economy by $728 billion, create 2.8 million jobs, and increase real household incomes by 5.7%.”²⁰

What Economists Are Saying

Many economists, however, paint a much different picture of the likely outcomes. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that Trump’s tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%, with a middle-income household facing a $22,000 lifetime loss.²¹

Former Biden administration economic adviser Jared Bernstein noted that the tariffs will likely not produce the promised gains and could carry significant economic costs.²² The International Monetary Fund has slashed its forecast for U.S. and global economic growth this year, citing Trump’s tariffs as a key factor.²³

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who served as chief economist for President George W. Bush, expressed concern that the impact goes beyond direct price increases: “It’s a tax on consumers… It will lead to less consumption and less economic activity.”²⁴

Looking Ahead: Short-Term Pain or Long-Term Restructuring?

The key question remains: are we experiencing a temporary disruption that will lead to a stronger, more resilient economy, or are we witnessing the beginning of a more problematic economic contraction?

The answer likely depends on several factors:

1. The duration of high tariffs: Will they remain in place long enough to incentivize domestic manufacturing, or will they be reduced through negotiations with trading partners?
2. Consumer response: How will American consumers react to higher prices and potentially limited product choices?
3. Global trade relationships: How will other countries respond with their own tariff policies and trade practices?
4. Business adaptation: Can American companies successfully adjust their supply chains and production models?

What’s clear is that we’re in the midst of a significant economic experiment. The current port slowdowns are just the beginning of a complex chain of economic consequences that will unfold in the coming months.

For now, workers like Charlie Camacho at the Port of Los Angeles face immediate uncertainty, while consumers may soon notice changes at their local stores. The administration is betting that short-term disruption will lead to long-term prosperity. Many economists remain skeptical.

As this economic story continues to unfold, we’ll keep monitoring its impacts on workers, businesses, and everyday Americans. The empty ports we see today may be just the first visible sign of a much broader economic transformation.